718: Barbara F. Walter | How Civil Wars Start (And How to Stop Them)

Predictive Models

Barbara F. Walter shares insights into the predictive models used to forecast civil conflicts, highlighting the surprising factors that emerged from the Political Instability Task Force. Initially, experts believed that poverty, income inequality, and ethnic diversity were key predictors of civil war. However, data analysts found only two factors to be highly predictive, which shocked the experts 1. Walter emphasizes the importance of understanding these factors to prevent potential conflicts in countries like the United States 2. She notes, "Our government knows what the factors are," stressing the need for awareness and action 3.

   

Historical Comparisons

Walter draws historical parallels to illustrate the conditions that lead to civil wars, comparing past conflicts to current U.S. conditions. She explains that full democracies rarely experience civil wars, but partial democracies, or anocracies, are more prone to violence 4. Ethnic identity politics often exacerbate tensions, as seen in Yugoslavia and Iraq, where political parties formed along ethnic lines 5. Walter highlights South Africa as a case where economic pressures led to peaceful reform, avoiding civil war 6. She notes, "The business community played a crucial role," in shifting the country's trajectory.

   

Rising Political Violence

The increasing acceptance of political violence in the U.S. is a concerning trend, according to Walter. She cites polls indicating that Americans across the political spectrum are more open to using violence for political goals 7. This shift mirrors the slow boil of factionalism, where people often don't recognize the threat until violence becomes a daily reality 8. Walter warns that one side is actively pursuing anti-democratic measures, increasing the risk of civil unrest 9. She concludes with a call to action, "The most important thing people can do is to vote," emphasizing civic engagement as a solution.